The Future - According to Gartner

Gartner (www.gartner.com) is a global consulting and research organisation focussing on information technology and management. Periodically they publish a paper on what they analyse as major trends that will impact business. Here are some of their predictions:

Gartner Top End User Predictions for 2010: Coping with the New Balance of Power.

A. Internet marketing will be regulated by 2015, controlling more than $250 billion in Internet marketing spending worldwide.
Market Implications:

The potential backlash from consumers on Internet marketing cannot be underestimated. Eventually marketers WILL abuse the Internet channel and annoy customers enough to generate an outcry strong enough to push legislation regulating Internet marketing activity. Consequences will include:

• That companies focusing primarily on the Internet for marketing purposes could find themselves unable to market effectively to customers, putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage.
• Vendors that focus solely or predominately on producing Internet marketing could find themselves faced with a declining market, as companies shift marketing funds to other channels to compensate

B. By 2014, more than three billion of the world’s adult population will be able to transact electronically via mobile and Internet technology.

Market Implications:

Two trends are merging that will drastically alter the future of the world’s trading economy:

• The rapid rise of mobile and Internet technology adoption in emerging economies.
• Advances in mobile payment, commerce and banking.

Together they will open the way for a significant portion of the world’s adult population to transact electronically. For many of these newly enfranchised consumers from emerging economies, the ability to use short message service (SMS), e-mail or payment accounts will constitute their first and only access to the estimated $1 trillion global economy.

For global firms such as Coca Cola and Carrefour, it will provide electronic reach and the ability to transact with a significant majority of adults on the planet. For entities such as eBay, TaoBao or Craigslist, it will open a huge opportunity for consumer-to-consumer transactions.

For mobile operators, Internet companies and financial institutions, it will open vast new markets for the provision of transactional and funds transfer capabilities

C. By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide.

According to Gartner estimates:

• The total number of PCs in use will reach 1.62 billion units in 2012, all of which are capable of Internet access, even if some are not connected.
• By 2012, the combined installed base of smartphones and browser-equipped enhanced phones will exceed 1.69 billion units. From 2012 onwards, this combined installed base will be greater than the installed base for PCs.

Nevertheless, most users in 2012 will use a PC as their primary Web access device and their phone as a secondary access device. However, as use of smartphones spreads globally, they will overtake the PC as the most common primary device for Web access sometime in 2015.

This shift means that many websites will need to be reformatted or rebuilt. Mobile device users

typically make many fewer “clicks” on a website than PC users, and websites not optimized for smaller screen formats will risk reduced customer interaction and fewer transactions.

• This market barrier will be of particularly concern to:
• Organizations in geographies where the PC is not as prevalent.
• Organizations with consumer-facing websites.
• Informational portals used by educational institutions and the government sector
• Online retailers, banks and financial service providers will be the most exposed to this risk

Q1. How can internet marketing be regulated?

Q2. Will the ability to transact electronically favour small businesses or large multi-nationals?

Q3. What are some of the problems in using mobile phones for on-line transaction?

The Great Firewall of China vs. Internet Filtering

The position of the Chinese government on controlling the content and access to the internet has been in the news for quite a while. This has raised the issue of Google 'voluntarily' filtering search results, Yahoo providing blogger identities and monitoring of dissidents. Below is a link to a video from the ABC's Hungry Beast program from 03/03/10:

http://hungrybeast.abc.net.au/stories/great-firewall-china

In Australia the government is also concerned with 'illegal' content being accessible on the web. Hungry Beast has a video that explains how this works and puts a particular point of view.

http://hungrybeast.abc.net.au/media/how-internet-filter-works

Please note that both videos are 'Hungry Beast' points of view and may represent partisan interests.

Q1. How different are the approaches to internet 'control' between the Chinese and Australian Governments.

Q2. What are the implications for legitimate commercial activity on the internet in either

country?

Q3. What can marketers do in dealing with these internet restrictions?

$70 Million Lost in Scams

From the ACC web site:

http://www.accc.gov.au/content/index.phtml/itemId/916279

"During 2009, losses reported to the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission through scams totalled almost $70 million, ACCC deputy chair Peter Kell said today when launching Targeting scams - Report of the ACCC on scam activity 2009.

"Scams continue to make up a large proportion of total complaints that the ACCC receives and more than 20,000 scam reports were made to the ACCC in 2009 - a 16 per cent increase compared with 2008," Mr Kell said.

"Realistically, this figure is likely to be the tip of the iceberg – given people can be embarrassed about reporting that they have fallen victim to scams and lost money in the process."

Online scams are the focus for the Australasian Consumer Fraud Taskforce's 2010 Fraud Week campaign. The campaign, Online Offensive—Fighting Fraud Online runs from 1-7 March.

...The report notes that the dominance of online scams. "Nearly 70 per cent of consumers that contacted the ACCC about scams during 2009 said they were contacted by scammers via the internet," Mr Kell said."

Q1. How serious is this in relation to other crimes such as burglary and robbery?

Q2. Go to the Scam Watch web site: www.scamwatch.gov.au and find out how:

Identity theft works

What are 'Chain letter' scams?